What percent of my income should I save for retirement?

I recently got an email from our HR department at work saying that I should be saving for retirement (Thanks guys!).  The email included a nice little graphic which seemed to suggest that I should save 6% of my salary.  Based on the assumptions (annual return of 7%), if I am 30, earn 40,000 a year and put 6% away for 30 years I will have $234,860 (in today’s dollars).  If I retire at 60, and expect to live until 80, that means I’ll have about $17,400 to live on per year in retirement.  (Its more than $11,700 (234,000/20 years) because I earn interest on the money that I haven’t taken out yet).  Either way, 17,400 isn’t much – especially considering the fact that I plan on living past 80 and $17,400 is less than half of the salary I would be used to.  Clearly 6% is not enough.

How much is enough? If 6% is not enough, then what is?  This is such an important question because it should be the foundation of your monthly budget.  If you are trying to do things right, you set aside money for your retirement first, and then see how much you have left to spend on everything else.  Again, its that old expression, “pay yourself first.”  So, what is a good percentage of gross income that you should be saving?  The typical rule of thumb is that you should save 10% of your salary for retirement.  But as the linked article suggests, even 10% may not be enough.  You may be 42 years old with no money saved for retirement (you’ll need to save much more than 10% of your income) or 25 and trying to retire early.  So while 10% of your income seemed like a good place to start as a minimum, it was clear to me that I needed to do some extra research to come up with a percentage that was more than just a rule of thumb.

I started playing with the zillions of online retirement calculators out there (just google “retirement calculator”) and quickly realized that “annual savings as a percentage of income” was just one of many variables in their complex retirement equations.  Fortunately,  Vanguard’s retirement calculator was simple enough to allow me to easily isolate the “savings as percentage of income” variable.   Even with its simplicity, however, the Vanguard calculator still required me to make some assumptions about retirement.  I’ve included a screenshot of what they look like in the Vanguard calculator as well as an explanation of my assumptions below.  In general, the assumptions are set for the average 25 year old who is thinking about retirement for the first time.

  1. How old are you and when will you retire?  25, 65.  Unless you have visions of jet-setting at age 50, the standard answer is age 65.  I can see the argument to use age 70 since we will probably be living longer than the current generation and social security benefits might not start until 70 when we are in the year 2050. It is much easier, however, to plan to retire at 65 and later decide to work until 70 than it is the other way around.
  2. What is your current annual income? $50,000.    This number is only relevant because it is used to determine the actual dollar value of how much money you will spend per year in retirement.  According to Vanguard (and most other retirement calculators), the typical retiree spends 85% of his pre-retirement  annual gross income in a year.  The blue bar in the chart at the right displays the result of this calculation; ($50,000 * 85% / 12 months = $3,542 a month).
  3. How much do you save annually for retirement?  To be determined.  This is the variable that we are trying to figure out, with the focus on the percentage of annual income and not the actual dollar value.  Note that it should include your personal contributions to an IRA, as well as any work contributions (including employer matching) in 401(k)s and 403(b)s.
  4. How much have you already saved for retirement?  $0.00.  I am assuming that you are just starting out.  If you have some money already saved, I encourage you to input all your information into calculator to get a personalized look at your retirement plan.
  5. What’s your market risk approach (In other words what will the average annual return of your investments be)?  Somewhere between 4% and 8%.  Part of this will be determined by the investments you select.  If you have a more conservative portfolio with a heavy percentage of bonds you can generally expect a lesser return than a more aggressive portfolio consisting mostly of stocks.  But even if I assumed that everyone had the same retirement portfolio, I still can’t predict how it would perform over the next 30 years. In the past your investments may have made 7% a year, but what if over the next 30 years it only averages 6%?  Click here for a great graphic from the New York Times that depicts the variability in 20 year returns.
  6. Will you receive any money from social security or pension? Maybe… If you are lucky enough to be in a profession that still distributes pensions, then great, you can include that income here.  Most of the private industry jobs out there now, however, do not distribute pensions, so the standard answer is $0 from pensions.  Whether or not you will receive any money from social security, however, is the bigger question.  There are countless articles out there detailing the unsustainable state that the social security system is in.  This article was the best I’ve found explaining the situation, and even offers some actionable advice.  If no policy changes are made, social security benefits will eventually have to be cut by one third.
  7. How long will you live in retirement?  Doesn’t matter.  This is not explicitly asked on the Vanguard calculator, but it is used in the behind the scene calculations.  Some retirement calculators use an equation that ensures you spend all your retirement money by age 85 (the standard guess for how long you will live).  Vanguard however uses the 4% rule.  The idea is that once you are in retirement, your nest egg will be put into more conservative investments where 4% is a typical return.  If you only take out 4% of your nest egg every year to live on, then that 4% will be replenished by investment gains and your nest egg will never lose value.  By using the 4% rule, you reduce the risk that you will run out of money if you live longer than you expect.  The “downside” is that when you die you might not have used all of your money up.  By using the Vanguard calculator and its 4% rule, the amount of money they recommend you save for retirement may be higher than the other calculators, but I think it is a much smarter approach than trying to guess how long you’ll live.

How can I plan for retirement if I can’t predict my rate of return or if Social Security will exist?  You’ll notice that I have answers for all of Vanguard’s questions except for two: “Will I receive money from Social Security?” and “What will my average annual rate of return for my investments be?”  Without knowing the answers to these two questions it is impossible to come up with an educated guess on what percent of my gross income I should be saving for retirement.  Because I don’t have a crystal ball, I settled for the next best thing – a spreadsheet that lets me test different scenarios.

In the interest of full disclosure, you should know that this spreadsheet is simply a recording of the values taken from Vanguard’s retirement calculator.  So for example, to get the 10% value at the bottom right of the chart, I set the “market risk approach” slider to 9.5% , set my social security benefit to $833 a month (20% of $50,000 / 12 months), and then adjusted the “how much do you save annually” slider until the green bar was equal to the blue bar.

So what does it all mean? First of all, saving 10% of you gross income is not nearly enough.  The only way that would work is if you received a significant amount of social security benefits, and your retirement portfolio earned a ridiculous 9.5% return per year.  Personally, counting on a 6% – 7% return seems much safer to me.  If you read my post on target date funds, you know that the investment style starts out very aggressive (90% in stocks) and gets more conservative as you get closer to retirement (65% stocks with 10 years to go).   So even though I have an “aggressive” portfolio, I’m still not counting on getting any returns out of the ordinary.

What percent of my income should I save for retirement? So here we are, finally back to the original question.  The answer is about 20%. If you are expecting a 7% return on your investments (a reasonable/slightly conservative guess) then you’ll need to save between 17% and 22% of your gross income every year – depending on how much social security you expect.  If you are making $50,000 a year and retired today, you could expect to receive social security benefits that would cover 37% of your current income.  As noted above, however, it is highly unlikely that social security will be around in the same form when you retire.  If it is still around, a safe bet is that you can expect to get 1/3 of the benefits you would receive today.  In other words, you could expect social security to cover 12% of your current income.  If thats the case, you would need to be saving about 20% of your annual income per year.

I guess what I’m saying is that 20% should be the new rule of thumb.  Now, I’ll be amazed if any of my friends saves anywhere near this amount.  I mean, lets face it, 20% is a lot of money.    But that is the reality these days; because unlike our parents, we can’t rely on pensions or social security or even a US economy that is growing like crazy.  Obviously, it would be great if the market continues to grow and all of the asumptions prove too conservative.  And if thats the case then that means you can travel to your hearts desire or even leave a little extra to your kids.  I don’t see a downside there.  But if you only save 10%?  Anything other than great returns and lots of social security means you wont have enough to retire.  Its a tough pill to swallow – having to save 20% of your income – but it is the only way that the numbers work.  Its honestly kind of hard to believe that the advice I was given was to save 6%…

The example is only for someone making $50,000 a year.  I make more (or less) than that, what percent should I be saving?  For our purposes, the annual income is irrelevant because everything can be depicted in percent of income.  The actual amount of your current income does not matter when figuring out what percentage of income to save.  If you make $100,000 dollars a year, you will have a higher standard of living in retirement ($85,000 a year) but by saving 20% of $100,000 you’ll be saving enough money to account for the higher standard of living.  The only thing that changes when you make more money, is that your expected benefit from Social Security decreases (as a percentage of income).  Here is a chart explaining this (All data is from SSA.gov).

If you make $50,000 a year and retired today, social security would pay you about 37% of your current income.  If you make $100,000 and retired today, social security would only pay you about 26% of your current income.  The take away here is this:  if you assume that you will only get 10% of your income in social security benefits, then at $50,000 a year that represents a much larger cut from current benefits than at $100,000 a year.  If you don’t assume any social security benefits, then your current income has absolutely no affect on the  “Percent of Annual Income Needed to be Saved” chart.

Advertisements

1. Individual Stocks and Retirement Portfolios

This is part one of seven in my attempt to explain how you should invest in your retirement portfolio.  Click here for the introduction.

Should I own individual stocks in my retirement account?  In the Fall of 2007, I had just come off a bitterly disappointing fantasy baseball season.  It was a season where I spent about 30 minutes a day researching stats and adjusting my roster.  Every day I would look at each player to see what his batting average was against the opposing pitcher, if he was on a hot streak and or even if he was playing a day game or night game (some players hit better in the day).  So when I came in third place, I felt like I had nothing to show for all the time and research that I had spent that season.

Coincidentally, that semester in school I was introduced to the stock market for the first time and became fascinated with the idea of making money in stocks.  I thought to myself, “If I spend as much time as I do on fantasy baseball on researching stocks, I might be able to actually make money instead of wasting my time looking at baseball stats.”  And so I began investing in a discretionary (non-retirement) portfolio.

As of today, my portfolio’s value has declined about 4 percent from its original value in 2008.  This is not terrible considering many portfolios lost 1/3 of their value during the mortgage crisis that happened to occur at the same time, but it is also nothing to brag about.  I still keep some money in this discretionary portfolio, but when I asked myself the question “Where should I put my retirement money?” I vowed to never own any individual stocks in my retirement portfolio.  Here are the three questions I asked myself that got me to that conclusion.

How much time do I want to spend on my retirement account every week?  Believe it or not one of the best books I read on individual stock investing was Real Money by Jim Cramer.  It was great at teaching the basics of how to analyze stocks and time the market by explaining things like price to earnings ratios and sector rotation.  One of the most important lessons I learned from Cramer was that owning stocks was not about “buy and hold” but “buy and homework” – as he is famous for saying.  He recommends that you do one hour of research per week for every stock you own, and that you need to own at least 5 stocks to have a diversified portfolio.  That is five hours more than I want to spend thinking about my retirement account every week.

If I spend the time, will it be enjoyable or stressful?  All right, let’s say I did have the time and inclination to spend at least 5 hours a week doing research.  That means that I’d be checking my stocks’ value once a day on the internet.  I would be straining my ear if I heard something on the radio about the stock market and thinking of what it might mean for my retirement.  Instead of flipping channels right past CNN I might actually want to hear what the talking heads are saying about the Federal Reserve and interest rates – and still have no idea if I should buy or sell some of my shares.  I know for a fact that there will be surges of joy when my portfolio goes up 2% in value one day, and then instant depression if the portfolio’s value drops. To me it just sounds like stress.  Especially when my ability to retire is on the line.

How likely am I to get better returns than everyone else?  Just for fun, I asked myself, what if I did have the time, and I didn’t mind the stress.  What makes me think – as an individual investor researching 5 hours a week – that I am going to see greater returns than a MBA that does this for a living?   Sure, there are always going to be a few people that made the right call and hit it big.  And I will always have some friends telling me how good the market’s been to them (though I know they are probably lying).  The fact of the matter is that the market is a zero sum game.  The winners and losers must balance out.  How can I be so sure that I’ll be on the winning side?  As I later learned (and present in part 2), all the research indicates that underperformance is a much more likely scenario.

I’m not trying to say that investing in individual stocks is always a bad idea.  I am saying it’s a bad idea for a retirement portfolio.  Its one thing if you make the wrong call in your discretionary portfolio and have to buy a 40 inch TV instead of the 60 inch 3D HDTV you’ve been saving for.   But what if you make the wrong call in your retirement portfolio?  The fact is, because the retirement nest egg is so important to your future security, buying and selling decisions have extra stress and extra importance.   Having that extra stress for returns that aren’t even likely to beat the market hardly seemed worth it.  Especially when I have to spend at least 5 hours a week.  So If I don’t want to invest in individual stocks myself, where should I put my money?

To continue reading, follow the link to Part 2 – The Case for Index Investing.

Reprise – My 4 Assumptions about Retirement Investing

This is the retrospective piece of my 7 part article on how to invest in a retirement portfolio.  Click here for the original article.

When I began my research into how to invest for retirement, I wasn’t trying to prove a point or convince anyone to use a particular method.  I simply wanted to make the best and most logical investments.  But I have discovered, mostly by talking things over with my friends, that what is best and most logical to me is not always the most logical to everyone else.  As a result of this realization I took a closer at what I had written in an effort to draw out the underlying assumptions of my work.  I determined – after some soul searching – that I have made four basic assumptions about retirement investing that influences every investing decision I make.

1.       Over a 20-30 year period, I will not beat the market with individual stocks.  You can call it low self esteem, I’ll call it smart.  I have neither the time nor the ability to handle the stress required to invest on my own.  Even if I did, the research shows that consistently beating the market is VERY rare.

2.       Mimicking the market’s returns will allow me to achieve my retirement goals.  I firmly believe that I don’t need to hit it big on the stock market in order to be able to retire.   If I can simply match the market’s return I will be able to retire comfortably.  I don’t assume that the market will return 8% over the long run.  That would be nice, but I am comfortable with whatever the market’s average annual return will be.  The way I look at it is this:  if it is rare to beat the market, then matching the market is the best you can do no matter what.

3.       As a passive investor, my role is to minimize expenses.  Since I don’t have to pick funds or individual stocks based on anything other than asset allocation, my only responsibility is to minimize the amount of money taken out of my portfolio by fees.

4.       Investing for Retirement is stressful.  Whether I beat the market every year, match its returns, or loose big,  I will be stressed during every moment that I think about my retirement portfolio.  It is one thing to invest in a discretionary portfolio, its another thing to invest in a portfolio that will be your means of living after age 65.  The importance of the retirement portfolio means that every investing decision has enormous weight – and only compounds my fear of making a decision that could cost me thousands of dollars.  I want to minimize the time (and therefore stress) I spend on my retirement.

Hopefully these assumptions help to explain the thought process I went through on my way to buying a target date fund, but in case its still not clear, here is a recap of how they influenced my research.  Assuming that I can’t beat the market put me on the path towards mutual funds and index funds. Both the  “investing is stressful” and the “average returns will allow me to retire” assumption led me to index funds.  While the second assumption has an obvious connection to index funds, the “investing is stressful” assumption led to this train of thought:  At the end of the day, even if the market averages only 6% a year, I can still look back at my investment decisions and say I did the right thing.  Index investing is the equivalent to being a smart poker player.   Sure, you might occasionally do better if you stayed in a game with a bad hand only to win on the river, but 9 times out of 10, if you play smart and play the percentages, you’ll be the guy at the final table.   Knowing that you made the smartest and safest decision you could helps to alleviate the stress in my opinion.  The third assumption resulted in my obsessive analysis of expense ratios and account fees.  Finally, the “investing is stressful” assumption led to me choosing target date funds over a more time consuming index fund portfolio.  If you are using these four assumptions, I don’t think it is possible to arrive at a solution that is anything other than “buy Target Date Funds.”